Overview: Kavkaz-2020

Kavkaz-2020 strategic command-staff exercise began yesterday. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Col General A. Fomin gave a briefing on September 9^th on the upcoming exercise, below is an overview gleaned from the briefing on the plan for Kavkaz-2020 with a few thoughts and additions.

Planned dates: Exercise – September 21-26

Main purpose: assess the ability of the Russian armed forces to successfully repel an attack by a mock state adversary, and conduct offensive operations in the Southwestern strategic direction, stress test the system (military and key civilian ministries) in handling a conflict that escalates from local war to regional war, and improve the capacity for multinational operations which is less of a concern in Zapad/Vostok (this is my addition).

Practical preparations began in March, involving staff talks with participating states. In July a surprise inspection took place of Southern and Western MD troops, select formations of the Central MD, Airborne VDV, plus naval infantry from Northern and Pacific Fleets. This snap readiness check included 149,755 personnel, 26,820 pieces of equipment, 414 aircraft, and 106 ships (combat and support).

Exercise brief

Phase 1 – 3 days: Planning phase, also coordination between military contingents of the different participating countries. The adversary is a ‘terrorist organization’ backed by a mock enemy state, so this phase of the exercise will naturally focus on repelling aerospace attacks, conducting reconnaissance, search and defensive actions, etc. The planning slide suggests this phase involves executing a strategic operation, and repelling an adversary aerospace operation.

Phase 2 – 2.5 days: Destruction of the adversary, localization of the conflict along different vectors, post conflict operations. This phase includes practicing command of a multinational group of troops in joint combat operations, wargaming operations involving land forces, aviation, air defense, the Black Sea fleet and the Caspian Flotilla in applying massed strikes, and offensive operations against a mock adversary. Total exercise run time: 5.5 days

Components involved: command and control, units from the Southern Military District, some elements of the Western Military District, Airborne VDV, LRA (long range aviation), VTA (transport aviation). Central MD must also be involved since they mention it regularly.

The numbers: Fomin’s briefing gave 80,000 total participants, which includes maneuver units, logistical and technical support, the National Guard, Civil Defense, and Ministry of Emergencies. It seems that the way they are counting these increasingly includes civilian agencies supporting, or subordinated to Military District leadership under the exercise parameters. One wonders if they stay consistent with follow on numbers, or if the figures will jump after the exercise when they report the totals. Since there are likely to be concurrent exercises and drills in other districts, they may not account for all of them.

Training ranges and exercise areas: Kaputsin Yar, Ashuluk, Prudboy, Adanak, Rayevsky, aviation ranges – Arzgirsky & Kopansky. Black Sea and Caspian Sea.

Countries invited: Armenia, Belarus, China, Myanmar, Pakistan. Azerbaijan was invited to participate in maneuvers on the Caspian Sea alongside Iran. It seems Azerbaijan’s participation is being ‘considered’ still, while Iran appears on board. My understanding is that India withdrew because it did not want to participate in events with China, over the fighting in Lakhdah.

Fomin tried to explain that the number of troops under a “single operational command” will not exceed those stipulated by the Vienna document. Basically, it seems the Russian MoD is arguing this time that they are having 6+ smaller exercises. That doesn’t make much sense, since the whole point of the exercise is to see how well the Joint Strategic Command of the Southern MD can take in forces from other districts. There is no front level standing command, so he must be referencing combined arms armies. Doubtfully the Vienna Document can be circumscribed in this manner. I suspect it doesn’t have any language splitting strategic from operational commands, or even remotely suggesting you can have 80k troops as long as it is under different operational commands at the time.  

Only thing odd in this briefing is that the return to base timeline seems a bit lengthy, October 30. Probably some other events, certifications, etc. planned for that time period between Sept 26-October 30th. Unfortunately the camera man couldn’t figure out that the slides were more important than filming the backs of people’s heads so it was difficult to see the full slides at the briefing.

Bonus, Ukrainian MoD issued a slide with their version of events. Caveat emptor, it but it looks generally right, only thing of interest here are the individual vectors/directions portrayed.