My publications

Publications, categorized by type and subject

 

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Kofman, Michael, Russian Demographics and Power: Does the Kremlin Have a Long Game? War on the Rocks, February 4, 2020

Kofman, Michael, It’s time to talk about A2/AD: Rethinking the Russian Military Challenge, War on the Rocks, September 5, 2019

Kofman, Michael, Why Russian Military Expenditure is Much Higher Than Commonly Understood (as is China’s), War on the Rocks, December 16, 2019

Kofman, Michael. Raiding and International Brigandry: Russia’s Strategy for Great Power Competition. War on the Rocks. June 14, 2018.

Michael J. Mazarr, Michael Kofman. Rediscovering Statecraft in a Changing Post-War Order. Texas National Security Review. Vol 1, Issue 3. May 2018.

Kofman, Michael and Rojansky, Matthew, What Kind of Victory for Russia in Syria? Military Review. January 24, 2018.

Kofman, Michael, “The Moscow School of Hard Knocks: Key Pillars of Russian Strategy,” War on the Rocks, January 17, 2017.

Kofman, Michael et al. (2017). Lessons from Russia’s Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. (Report No. RR-1498-A). Santa Monica, California: RAND Corporation.

Kofman, Michael. The Seven Deadly Sins of Russia Analysis. War on the Rocks. December 23, 2015.

Kofman, Michael and Matthew Rojansky. A Closer Look at Russia’s Hybrid War. Kennan Cable No7.  April, 2015

 

Analytical Briefs

Kofman, Michael. Putting the Russia Problem in Perspective, Stockholm Free World Forum. Briefing No. 6 2020

Kofman, Michael. “The Ogarkov Reforms: The Soviet Inheritance Behind Russia’s Military Transformation,” CCW Russia Brief, Issue 5, June 2019

Kofman, Michael. Drivers of Russian Grand Strategy. Stockholm Free World Forum. Briefing No. 6 2019

Kofman, Michael. “Rethinking the Structure and Role of Russia’s Airborne Forces.” CCW Russia Brief. Issue 4, January 2019.

Kofman, Michael. “Assessing Vostok-2018.” CCW Russia Brief. Issue 3. September 2018.

Kofman, Michael. “The Durability of Russian Military Power: Moscow’s Prospects for Sustaining Direct Competition.” CCW Russia Brief. Issue 2. May 2018.

Kofman, Michael, “From Hammer to Rapier: Russian Military Transformation in Perspective,” Changing Character of War Centre, Russia Brief, Issue I, January 2018

Kofman, Michael et al. (2017). Lessons from Russia’s Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. (Report No. RR-1498-A). Santa Monica, California: RAND Corporation.

Kofman, Michael, “NATO Deterrence and the Russian Specter in the Baltics,” The Russia File. Wilson Center. August 9, 2016.

Kofman, Michael. The Russian Military: A Force in Transition.  Report for the Center on Global Interests. June 2016.

Kofman, Michael and Sushentsov, Andrey. What Makes Great Power War Possible. Valdai Discussion Club Report. April 2016.

Kofman, Michael and Matthew Rojansky. A Closer Look at Russia’s Hybrid War. Kennan Cable No7.  April, 2015

Kofman, Michael. Weapons are not the answer to Ukraine’s military woes.  Wilson Center.  Wilson Brief 1, October 2014.

Parker, John and Kofman, Michael.  Russia Still Matters: Strategic Challenges and Opportunities for the Obama Administration. Strategic Forum, March 2013, National Defense University Press.

Gompert, David and Kofman, Michael.  Raising Our Sights: Russian-American Strategic Restraint in an Age of Vulnerability. Strategic Forum, January 2012, NDU Press.

Andres, Richard and Kofman, Michael.  European Energy Security: Reducing Volatility of Ukraine-Russia Natural Gas Pricing Disputes.  Strategic Forum, February 2011, NDU Press.

 

Articles, Op-eds, and shorter analytical pieces

Kofman, Michael. “Beyond the Hype of Russia’s Hypersonic Weapons,” The Moscow Times, January 16, 2020.

Kofman, Michael. “Toward a Sino-Russian entente?” Riddle, November 29, 2019.

Dmitry Gorenburg and Michael Kofman, “5 things you need to know about last week’s explosion in Russia,” The Washington Post, August 16, 2019.

Kofman, Michael. “Russia-China Bomber Patrol Shows Stronger Alignment Between the Two,” Russia Matters, July 26, 2019.

Kofman, Michael. “Russian defense spending is much larger, and more sustainable than it seems.” May 3, 2019. Defense News.

Kofman, Michael. “Is a security dilemma likely to emerge in Europe?” Baltic Rim Economies, February 2019. Issue No.1

Dmitry Gorenburg and Michael Kofman, “Russia and Ukraine had a short naval battle. Here’s what you need to know.” The Washington Post. November 28, 2018.

Kofman, Michael. “Vostok-2018: Russia and China signal growing military cooperation.” Russia Matters. September 10, 2018.

Kofman, Michael. “The Collapsing Russian Defense Budget and Other Fairy Tales.” Russia Matters. May 22, 2018

Kofman, Michael, “Starving Wolf No Longer: Can Russia Sustain Its Military,” The Moscow Times, February 6, 2018

Kofman, Michael, “Некролог по режиму контроля над вооружениями,” Kommersant, December 12, 2017.

Kofman, Michael “Zapad 2017: Beyond the Hype, Important Lessons for the US and NATO,” European Leadership Network, October 27, 2017

Kofman, Michael, “Russian Military Buildup in the West: Fact Versus Fiction,” Russia Matters, September 7, 2017

Kofman, Michael, “For the U.S., Arming Ukraine Could Be a Deadly Mistake, The New York Times, August 25, 2017

Kofman, Michael and Edmonds, Jeffrey, “Why the Russian Navy is a More Capable Adversary Than It Appears,” The National Interest, August 22, 2017

Kofman, Michael and Gorenburg, Dmitry, “Moscow Conference on International Security 2017: Cooperation Lost in Translation,” The National Interest. May 9, 2017.

Kofman, Michael, “Reports of Deep Cuts to Russia’s Defense Budget Have Been Grossly Exaggerated,” World Politics Review. March 22, 2017

Kofman, Michael, “Russian Spetsnaz: Learning from Experience,” The Cipher Brief. March 15, 2017.

Kofman, Michael, “The ABCs of Russian Military Power: A Primer for the New Administration,” The National Interest, February 2, 2017.

Kofman, Michael “Russia Will Continue Setting the Agenda,” The Cipher Brief. January 17, 2017.

Kofman, Michael, “The Russian Navy’s Great Mediterranean Show of Force,” The National Interest, October 21, 2016.

Kofman, Michael, “Putin’s Military is Playing the Long Game in Ukraine,” Foreign Policy. August 31, 2016.

Kofman, Michael. “Как надо сдерживать Россию,” Lenta.ru August 8, 2016.

Kofman, Michael. “Ложные реальные угрозы,” Vedomosti  July 15, 2016.

Kofman, Michael. Russia’s submarine program: How big a threat? CNN Opinion. April 25, 2016.

Kofman, Michael. Гибридная война, которой нет. Vedomosti. April 20, 2016.

Kofman, Michael. How to Lose a Proxy War with Russia. The National Interest. March 6, 2016.

Kofman, Michael. The Russian Navy: Strategies and Missions of a Force in Transition. CIMSEC.  November 23, 2015.

Kofman, Michael. Six Key Trends in Russian Foreign Policy, As Seen by the West.  Russia Direct. November 6, 2015.

Kofman, Michael. Russia’s New Strategy in the Middle East.  Russia Direct Report.  October 29, 2015.

Kofman, Michael. Russia Banks on Brief Campaign to Determine Syria Endgame. World Politics Review. War on the Rocks. October 19, 2015.

Kofman, Michael.  Pulling Russia and Ukraine Back from the Brink of War. The National Interest. August 14, 2015.

Matthew Rojansky and Kofman, Michael. Isolated Russia has little left to lose. CNN. July 16, 2015

Graham, T.E., Rojansky, Matthew, Kofman, Michael.  Are Ukraine and the U.S. allies or not? Reuters.  June 10, 2015.

Kofman, Michael and Matthew Rojansky. U.S. and German Views on Ukraine: The Risks of Trans-Atlantic Misunderstanding. Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. June 2015.

Kofman, Michael. Germany’s G7 Summit and Russia. The Diplomatic Courier.  June 3, 2015.

Kofman, Michael.  Don’t Doubt the Ceasefire. Foreign Affairs. February 22, 2015.

Kofman, Michael.  Sending Arms to Ukraine won’t work.  CNN. February 10, 2015.

Kofman, Michael.  How to Start a Proxy War with Russia.  The National Interest. February 5, 2015.

Kofman, Michael and Roger McDermott. No Return to Cold War in Russia’s New Military Doctrine. Eurasia Review. February 3, 2015.

Kofman, Michael. Germany proves an uncertain leader in confrontation with Russia. The Diplomatic Courier.  January/February Edition, 2015.

Kofman, Michael. Time to rethink Ukraine deal. CNN. January 23, 2015.

Kofman, Michael.  Strong or weak, bully or buffoon? Will the real Russia please stand up? Reuters. December 17, 2014.

Kofman, Michael.  An Uneasy Menage a Trois.  Foreign Affairs. December 4, 2014.

Kofman, Michael.  Is Russia planning a winter offensive? CNN. November 13, 2014.

Kofman, Michael.  Russia rejects global governance norms, and the US is running out of options. The Diplomatic Courier, November 7, 2014.

Kofman, Michael. Why sending weapons to Ukraine would be a terrible idea. Quartz. October 24, 2014.

Kofman, Michael.  Ukraine’s Battle for the East is Over. The National Interest.  September 9, 2014.

Kofman, Michael.  The battle for Ukraine: Who is winning? The National Interest.  May 17, 2014.

Kofman, Michael. Can you confront Russia and save Ukraine? The Diplomatic Courier, May 7, 2014.

Kofman, Michael. Targeted Sanctions on Russia will work, but mostly for Vladimir Putin.  The Diplomatic Courier, April 30, 2014.

Kofman, Michael.  Putin’s Grand Strategy for Ukraine.  The National Interest.  April 25, 2014.

Kofman, Michael.  Russia Can’t Afford to Lose. The National Interest. April 14, 2014.

Kofman, Michael. Central Asia: Great Games or Graveyard? The Diplomatic Courier.  Print Edition.  June 2011.

 

War on the Rocks Articles

Kofman, Michael, It’s time to talk about A2/AD: Rethinking the Russian Military Challenge, War on the Rocks, September 5, 2019

Kofman, Michael, Russian Demographics and Power: Does the Kremlin Have a Long Game? War on the Rocks, February 4, 2020

Kofman, Michael, Why Russian Military Expenditure is Much Higher Than Commonly Understood (as is China’s), War on the Rocks, December 16, 2019

Kofman, Michael, Blessed be thy Nuclear Weapons: The Rise of Russian Nuclear Orthodoxy, War on the Rocks, June 21, 2019

Kofman, Michael, Revise and Resubmit: An Unconvincing Proposal for Permanent U.S. Troops in Poland, War on the Rocks, November 1, 2018.

Kofman, Michael. Under the Missile’s Shadow: What Does the Passing of the INF Treaty Mean? War on the Rocks. October 26, 2018

Kofman, Michael. Permanently Stationing U.S. Forces in Poland is a bad idea, but one worth debating.” War on the Rocks. October 12, 2018.

Kofman, Michael. Russian Performance in the Russo-Georgian War Revisited. War on the Rocks. September 4, 2018.

Kofman, Michael. The August War, Ten Years On: A Retrospective on the Russo-Georgian War. War on the Rocks. August 17, 2018.

Kofman, Michael. Stranger Things in Helsinki. War on the Rocks. July 23, 2018.

Kofman, Michael. Raiding and International Brigandry: Russia’s Strategy for Great Power Competition. War on the Rocks. June 14, 2018.

Kofman, Michael, “What to expect when you’re expecting Zapad,” War on the Rocks. August 23, 2017

Kofman, Michael, “No Plan? No Strategy? No Problem! Syria and why Trump’s Russia Policy is off to a rough start,” War on the Rocks, April 11, 2017.

Kofman, Michael, “A Comparative Guide to Russia’s Use of Force: Measure Twice, Invade Once,” War on the Rocks, February 16, 2017.

Kofman, Michael, “The Moscow School of Hard Knocks: Key Pillars of Russian Strategy,” War on the Rocks, January 17, 2017.

Kofman, Michael, “The Misadventures of Russia and the United States in Syria: Complete Strategy Implosion Edition,” War on the Rocks. October 11, 2016.

Kofman, Michael. “The Crimean Crisis and Russia’s Military Posture in the Black Sea,” War on the Rocks. August 19, 2016.

Kofman, Michael. The Expensive Pretzel Logic of Deterring Russia by Denial. War on the Rocks. June 23, 2016.

Kofman, Michael. Fixing NATO Deterrence In the East or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love NATO’s Crushing Defeat by Russia.  War on the Rocks. May 12, 2016

Gorenburg, Dmitry and Kofman, Michael. There is no Russian withdrawal from Syria. War on the Rocks. March, 18, 2016.

Kofman, Michael. The Russian Quagmire in Syria and Other Washington Fairy Tales. War on the Rocks. February 16, 2016.

Kofman, Michael. The Seven Deadly Sins of Russia Analysis. War on the Rocks. December 23, 2015.

Kofman, Michael. Why the U.S. Should Be Paying Attention to Russia’s Latest Strikes in Syria. War on the Rocks. November 19, 2015.

Kofman, Michael. The Russian Intervention in Syria: Policy Options and Exit Strategies. War on the Rocks. October 21, 2015.

Kofman, Michael. Russia’s Arsenal in Syria: what do we know? War on the Rocks. October 18, 2015.

Kofman, Michael. How Russia’s Gambit in Syria Changes the Game. War on the Rocks. September 21, 2015.

Kofman, Michael. Putin’s Strategy is Far Better Than You Think. War on the Rocks. September 7, 2015.

Kofman, Michael.  Is Russia’s Power to Annoy Changing the Game? War on the Rocks. August 24, 2015

 

Contributions to edited volumes

Michael Kofman, Russian Combat Operations in Syria and Their Impact on the Force, p.29-35 in Russia’s Policy in Syria and the Middle East. Central Asia Program. January 2019.

Kofman, Michael. The Potential Modes and Venues of Russian Aggression. p.137-151 in “To Have and to Hold: Putin’s Quest for Control in the Former Soviet Empire,” Edited by Leon Aron. American Enterprise Institute. March 2018.

Kofman, Michael, (2018) Russia and the West: the political tragedy of the post-Cold War, in Giancarlo Aragona’s, La Russia Post-Sovietica¸ ISPI, Mondartori Press.

Kofman, Michael. (2016) US and Russia in Syria’s War: Cooperation and Competition, in Artis Pabriks, The War in Syria Lessons for the West (pp.65-86) University of Latvia Press, Riga.

Kofman, Michael (2009) Chapter 11: Russia/Eurasia. In Patrick M. Cronin (Ed.) Global Strategic Assessment 2009. (pp.239-252) National Defense University Press, Washington, D.C.

Kofman, Michael (2009) Chapter 12: East and Southeast Asia. In Patrick M. Cronin (Ed.) Global Strategic Assessment 2009. (pp.277-279) National Defense University Press, Washington, D.C.

 

Journal Articles

Michael J. Mazarr, Michael Kofman. Rediscovering Statecraft in a Changing Post-War Order. Texas National Security Review. Vol 1, Issue 3. May 2018.

Kofman, Michael, “Searching for Strategy in Washington’s Competition with Russia,” Texas National Security Review, Essay #4, January 26, 2018.

Kofman, Michael, “A Tale of Two Campaigns: U.S. and Russian Military Operations in Syria,” in Pathways to Peace and Security. p.163-170, No. 1(52) Special Issue. Edited by Ekaterina Stepanova, 2017 ISBN 978-5-9535-0502-4

Kofman, Michael, “The Russian Dream: Power Without Substance,” Book Review Roundtable. Asia Policy, Number 22, 223-48.

 

Military Magazines/Journals

Kofman, Michael. “A Year of Challenging Growth for Russia’s Navy.” Proceedings Magazine, Vol.146/2/1405

Kofman, Michael and Rojansky, Matthew, What Kind of Victory for Russia in Syria? Military Review. January 24, 2018.

Kofman, Michael, (2017) Russia’s Fifth-Generation Sub Looms. Proceeding Magazine, Vol.143/10/1,376

Kofman, Michael and Polmar, Norman (2017) Naval Aviation Taking Flight Again…Slowly. Proceedings Magazine, Vol. 143/3/1,369

Polmar, Norman and Kofman, Michael (2017) Impressive Beneath the Waves. Proceedings Magazine, Vol. 143/2/1, 368.

Polmar, Norman and Kofman, Michael (2017) One Step Forward, Two Steps Back? Proceedings Magazine, Vol. 143/1/1,367, pp.66-67

Kofman, Michael and Polmar, Norman. (2016) Toward Smaller Ships and Professional Sailors. Proceedings Magazine, Vol 142/11/1.365, pp.66-67

Kofman, Michael.  Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of the Crisis in Ukraine.  Joint Force Quarterly, Issue 76.  National Defense University Press. January 2015.